Since starting writting this blog in November 2009I have watched silver prices slowly climb. Today it reached $23.32 (up a further 12c).
The sale of American Silver Eagles is also climbing!
My message as ever is simple:
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US Stocks – Short term trend remains down hard. The next down-draft is expected to be sharp with the Dow falling several thousand points. Downside potential remains historic. Long term trend down though mid 2016. This phase down in stocks will be larger than the 2007 – 2009 decline. It has already started and the public is clueless. I expect ALL world stock markets to fall. US Dollar – Short and Intermediate term US Dollar trends have turned up. This rally could last several weeks or many months. Long term trend down, as is the case of all unbacked paper currencies since the beginning of history. Interest Rates – Have put in or will soon put in a major bottom. The bond market is currently the biggest bubble about to (slowly) burst.
Precious Metals – Short term trend up. That could change. Long term trend is up. At some point in the future I believe that paper currencies will have to convert to some type of precious metals backing. Or people may just lose faith in paper money .We want to be in silver BEFORE that happens. Interest in silver continues to grow as evidenced by the record breaking Silver Eagle sales and of course the fact prices have been rising. Real Estate – Down. The Economy – Down. Deflation will accelerate. Unemployment should ultimately double before this deflation ends. The largest measure of money supply in the US, M3, is contracting at a rate that is only comparable to the Great Depression (see http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1275321600.php )
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From the July 19th issue of COIN WORLD magazine:
”Through the end of June, the U.S. Mint had sold 4.344 million more American Eagle silver bullion coins than it sold during the same six-month period in 2009.
Through June 30, the Mint recorded sales of 18,168,500 silver Eagle bullion coins in 2010. During the January to June period in 2009, sales of the silver bullion coin totaled 13,824,500.
In 2010, the Mint has sold an average of nearly 3.03 million coins for each of the first six months of the calendar year. During the same period in 2009, the monthly average was slightly more than 2.3 million coins.”
The news as we go to press is that the Fed is more worried about deflation. They must be reading this newsletter which as been mentioning the D word for months.
Of course their solution is to print money in a different way in the form of buying up Treasuries. It will be interesting watching this unfold over the next 6 years.
Here’s a good article that explains:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/30/business/economy/30fed.html
US Stocks – Short term trend remains down. The next down-draft is expected to be sharp with the Dow falling several thousand points. Downside potential remains historic. Long term trend down though mid 2016. This phase down in stocks will be larger than the 2007 – 2009 decline. It has already started and the public is clueless. I expect ALL world stock markets to fall.
US Dollar - Short term prices are approaching a low. Intermediate term US Dollar trend remains up. This rally could last another year or so. Long term trend down, as is the case of all unbacked paper currencies since the beginning of history.
Interest Rates – Short term rates down but near a low. Long term trend remains up but interest rates may stay in a low range for months, maybe years.
Precious Metals – Short term trend is turning back down or will after one more push up to its recent highs. Long term trend is up. At some point in the future I believe that paper currencies will have to convert to some type of precious metals backing. Or people may just lose faith in paper money .We want to be in silver BEFORE that happens. Interest in silver continues to grow as evidenced by the record breaking Silver Eagle sales and of course the fact prices have been rising.
Real Estate – Down.
The Economy – Down. Deflation will accelerate. Unemployment should ultimately double before this deflation ends. The largest measure of money supply in the US, M3, is contracting at a rate that is only comparable to the Great Depression (see http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1275321600.php )
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I was pleasantly surprised heres what I found (via Terapeak.co.uk):
Then I wanted to find out what the Professionals were saying about American Silver Eagles……..
Quoted from The Silver Institute in Washington, DC, from an article in their most recent Silver News quarterly newsletter:
”The United States Mint sold 28,766,000 American Silver Eagle bullion coins in 2009, an all-time record, 46 percent more than 2008 sales of 19,583,000 of the one-ounce coins.
In addition, American Eagle silver bullion sales revenue increased 21.4 percent from $306.4 million in fiscal year 2008 to $372 million in FY 2009, Mint officials noted.
The rise in demand is coming mainly from consumers who see silver as a storehouse of wealth during financially uncertain times, including inflation and a declining US dollar, as well as silver’s growing industrial use as world economies improve.”
. . . and from a news story posted on the NumisMaster.com website on April 8th:
”How many silver American Eagles must the U.S. Mint offer for sale before buyers have enough?Good question. During the first quarter of 2010, the Mint sold a record 9,023,900 of the one-ounce silver coins, but demand still exceeds supply and the Mint is continuing its allocation process among its authorized purchasers to ration the supply. If sales continue at this pace, more than 36 million could be sold by the end of the calendar year. Such a figure would be up sharply from last year’s 28,766,500 coins, which itself was a record number for a calendar year.”
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Why Are Silver Sales Soaring? – Casey Research
Here`s how it starts: “The U.S. Mint just reported another record, but this time it wasn’t for gold. The Mint sold more Silver Eagles in March and in the first quarter of the year than ever before. A total of 9,023,500 American Silver Eagles were purchased in Q110, the highest amount since the coin debuted in 1986.
While this is certainly bullish, there’s something potentially more potent developing in the background. Namely, how this matches up with U.S. silver production. Like gold, the U.S. Mint only manufactures Eagles from domestic production. And U.S. mine production for silver is about 40 million ounces. In other words, we just reached the point where virtually all U.S. silver production is going toward the manufacturing of Silver Eagles.”
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